10/28/24 - Why I Hope to All that is Good and Holy that Kamala Harris Wins the Presidency
I write something like this every two or four years. Maybe it makes a difference to someone, maybe it's just for me, I don't know.
If you've decided to vote for Donald Trump, I don't think there's anything I can say that will change your mind. There's nothing you could say to change mine, so I won't assume I could do any better. This post is not for you.
But if you haven't decided who to vote for, or are considering not voting at all, there are a few things that - as a friend - I am asking you to consider.
When we as a nation failed to elect Hillary Clinton in 2016, we decisively allowed an extreme and incredibly destructive political minority to take control of the Supreme Court. It's true that this was also facilitated by then Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and many others, but it could not have happened without the election of Donald Trump.
Since then, and especially in the past three Court terms, the 6-3 Conservative supermajority has made myriad decisions well outside the majority interest and opinion of the American people. These decisions are already producing horrendous real life outcomes for Women's Rights, Voting Rights, Workers Rights, Environmental Protections, Anti-Discrimination Laws, Democracy, Autocracy... I could go on, and they’re just getting started.
Donald Trump appointed 3 Supreme Court Justices, all still under 60 years old. If he wins again, he could replace the other 3 Conservative Appointees (aged 69-76) with younger, more extreme Justices. There is also a non-zero risk that a Democratic Appointee could retire or pass away. I’m taking for granted that the Supreme Court is political, not going to depoliticize on its own, and that efforts to expand the Court (especially under a Trump Presidency) are not realistic. Feel free to argue those points, but I feel confident that this is our reality.
In this Election, due to the anti-democratic nature of Congress and the Electoral College, Republicans are favored to keep the House, heavily favored to take the Senate, and have a strong advantage toward taking the Presidency. In the past decade (and I think due to the anti-democratic nature of our Elections) these Institutions have slid from performing dismally to being near-paralyzed by severe dysfunction. So it is also unrealistic to imagine any checks or balances to the Court from the Legislative or Executive branches of government under Republican control.
Our best hope as a Nation to prevent losing the Supreme Court to right-wing extremists for generations is for Kamala Harris to win the Presidency. I am voting for Kamala Harris for many reasons, but for any readers who are not so sure, I think that all of the above is more than sufficient to justify voting for her on its own. Some readers might wonder why I'm not making a case on Harris' policy, record, or character - the reason is that I'm thinking of Moderates and Progressives who these arguments have not convinced. I’d also like to address some of the other Moderate and Progressive arguments I've heard in favor of not voting for Kamala Harris, or not voting at all.
First, I've seen and heard people say that they don’t intend to vote since only 7 states will decide the Presidential Election anyway. This is not incorrect, but I promise that down-ballot races do matter, and winning the popular vote strengthens the movement to move on from the Electoral College as well as holding some symbolic significance in terms of a policy mandate.
Some people have told me that they don't need to vote because they feel insulated from the worst of the potential damage at the National level on account of their State and Local governments. Consider that this Supreme Court has no problem overruling State legislation when it suits its purposes. And Donald Trump will also make every effort to enact sweeping national policy changes that State and local governments can’t defy. Also, consider the deeply disenfranchised voters on both sides who will suffer in places where folks are substantially less privileged. I have heard many times a “leave it up to the States” argument from people on both sides who are frustrated with dysfunction at the National level, or feel that other States have policies backwards. This argument makes me think about how many fundamental human rights I might lose just for the misfortune of being born in another part of the country. And it's not a sustainable way for the country to function.
Perhaps the most significant argument I have seen and heard is from people who feel they cannot ethically vote for Kamala Harris due to the devastation in Gaza. I know this argument comes from a good place, but please understand that there are only two possible outcomes of this election and electing Donald Trump will be substantially worse for Palestinian civilians by every metric. These people note that they have the most leverage in a situation where Democrats are desperate for their votes. But we need only look back 8 years to see that any short-term galvanizing benefit to Progressive coalitions under Trump’s first term was easily offset by greater long-term suffering endured by marginalized peoples worldwide. Please continue to protest the atrocities, but don't ignore the history of failure in such protest votes. I don't like the flawed two-party hegemony any more than you, but any serious third-party coalition is going to come from grassroots organizing in local elections, not a vanity campaign for President. The most successful third-party candidate for President in modern history won zero electoral votes and failed to break even 19% of all votes cast in that election.
Finally, some people recall Trump’s first term with rose-colored glasses. I presume this might be easier for Americans who are some combination of white, male, heterosexual, cisgender, financially secure, Christian, “full” citizens, etc. although I imagine it could occur to anyone. Several of those terms describe me, but one I want to especially underline is “financially secure”, since the most common refrain I hear from Moderates is “at least Trump was good for the economy”. I would argue that for the vast majority of Americans, Trump was good for the economy in the same way that a payday loan is good for your bank balance. But even so, if you feel Trump’s first term “wasn’t so bad”, I ask you to think about your fellow Americans, friends and family perhaps, who the terms above don't describe. Imagine what they might be worried about from a second Trump term.
If you made it this far, thanks for your consideration. I don’t imagine the next four years are going to be easy ones in either case, but if you’ll join me in voting for Kamala Harris, I think at least they won’t be nearly as difficult. She probably wouldn’t have been my top choice, but neither was Joe Biden, or Hillary Clinton, or John Kerry. Still, I don’t wonder if she is a criminal, a rapist, suffering from cognitive decline, sociopathic, narcissistic, misogynistic, racist, crooked, or any of the other number of valid observations a person could make about Donald Trump. I don’t wonder if she would ruin the country for personal gain. I don’t wonder if she’s a fascist. I think she would listen carefully and respond fairly to criticism. I see no reason not to vote for her. I hope to all that is good and holy that she wins.